County profile
Northumberland County, Virginia Community Health Profile
Environmental risk, disease burden, provider access, and SDOH scores for community health needs assessment and service line planning. Fused from EPA, CDC, CMS, and Census data into a single free view.
Opportunity Score
Env
11
−39 vs U.S. mean
Disease
73
+23 vs U.S. mean
Provider
22
−28 vs U.S. mean
SDOH
62
+12 vs U.S. mean
Specific health risk patterns
No specific risk patterns triggered in Northumberland County; 4 are close to the threshold
4 signals near threshold: Runoff Burden (63) · Heat Vulnerability (62) · Respiratory Burden (56) · Heat-Dialysis Vulnerability (55)
8 signals evaluated. See all signal methodologies →
Where Northumberland County stands
Health risks here sit near national averages
Northumberland County, Virginia has elevated chronic disease rates — respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and behavioral health conditions rank worse than 73% of U.S. counties. Pollution exposure, doctor access, and social and economic conditions all sit closer to the middle of the national distribution. The pattern here is concentrated disease burden rather than multiple risks piling up — typically this points to legacy disease patterns or an older population rather than emerging environmental or access drivers.
Methodology: when three or more of the four major health-risk areas (pollution, chronic disease, doctor access, social and economic conditions) score above the 70th national percentile, we call the pattern “multi-pillar convergence.” The scoring approach and citations live on the methodology page.
Risk profile
Northumberland County compared to Virginia and the U.S. average
Four health-risk scores on a 0-100 scale, where 50 is the U.S. average. A higher score means that area is a stronger contributor to community health risk.
Disease Burden (73) is worse than at least 70% of U.S. counties, the largest contributor to community health risk here.
SDOH Stress (62) is moderately worse than the U.S. average of 50.
Environmental Risk (11) and Provider Gap (22) are at or better than the U.S. average.
- Northumberland County
- Virginia state mean
- U.S. mean (50)
- Signal threshold (70)
Current Conditions
Today's air quality, fires, and weather alerts
Live operational data for Northumberland County: real-time AQI from EPA AirNow, active fires from NIFC, and any National Weather Service advisories. Updated daily.
Environmental Factors
Air, water, and exposure indicators
Top environmental indicators for Northumberland County with state and national benchmarks. Full profile covers 40+ metrics on the platform.
| Indicator | Northumberland County | VA avg | US avg |
|---|---|---|---|
PM2.5 (annual mean) EPA AQS / EJSCREEN | 5.8 µg/m³ ▼ -12% vs VA | 6.6 | 7.4 |
Ozone EPA AQS / EJSCREEN | 53.9 ppb ▲ +2.7% vs VA | 52.5 | 57.1 |
Traffic Proximity EJSCREEN | 7,026 index ▼ -98% vs VA | 405,269 | 291,320 |
Days Above 95°F NOAA ACIS | 3 days/yr ▼ -66% vs VA | 9 | 25 |
Superfund Proximity EPA EJSCREEN | 0.00 score ▼ -100% vs VA | 0.11 | 0.16 |
Drinking Water Violations EPA EJSCREEN | 0.00 score ▼ -100% vs VA | 1.09 | 3.39 |
Wildfire-Attributable Air Quality
Smoke PM2.5 the EPA doesn't count
Stanford peer-reviewed wildfire-attributable PM2.5 for Northumberland County. The EPA classifies wildfire smoke as "exceptional events" and excludes it from official AQS monitoring; Childs/Burke fills that gap with daily county-level data.
Source: Childs et al, Environmental Science & Technology 2022 (Harvard Dataverse 10.7910/DVN/DJVMTV). Latest year shipped: 2020. Burke et al, Nature 2023 estimate that the EPA AQS network undercounts wildfire-attributable PM2.5 by 10–30% in fire-affected counties. Coverage is CONUS only. Full methodology →
Outage Burden
When the grid goes dark
DOE/ORNL EAGLE-I customer-hours-out for Northumberland County in 2024. The fraction is population-normalized via the Maximum Customer Count denominator (Brelsford et al, Sci Data 2024) so it's directly comparable across counties of any size.
Source: DOE/ORNL EAGLE-I (figshare 10.6084/m9.figshare.24237376). Latest year shipped: 2024. Coverage: 3,050 of 3,222 US counties; AK and some sparsely-served rural counties may have no data. Full methodology →
Severe Weather History
Recorded storm events and damages
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database for Northumberland County, 2010–2026. Cumulative + last 5 years of recorded weather events with deaths, injuries, and damages.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database (full history rollup). NOAA buckets ~50 raw event_type strings into 8 health-relevant categories. Coverage: 3,107 of 3,222 US counties; the absent are typically Alaska boroughs and territories where NOAA codes events as forecast zones rather than counties. Full methodology →
Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations
Livestock density and federal-permit confidence
USDA Census of Agriculture (vintage 2022) animal-unit totals for Northumberland County, normalized to land area and ranked nationally. Animal Units (AU) follow the EPA federal definition under 40 CFR §122.23.
Source: USDA Census of Agriculture 2022 (head counts) + EPA 40 CFR §122.23 (animal-unit conversion). The CAFO composite deliberately omits NPDES facility counts because federal coverage averages ~32% nationally per EPA-IG and is heavily state-skewed — adding it as a numerator would systematically bias the index toward delegated states. Full methodology →
Pesticide Use
USGS Pesticide National Synthesis
Annual pesticide application rollup for Northumberland County from the USGS Pesticide National Synthesis Project. Most recent year on file: 2019. Mass figures use the EPest_HIGH estimate (the conservative-against-undercounting framing); EPest_LOW is also retained on the underlying data.
- 1.GLYPHOSATE15.2K kg
- 2.2,4-D5.1K kg
- 3.ACETOCHLOR3.4K kg
- 4.METOLACHLOR & METOLACHLOR-S3.3K kg
- 5.ATRAZINE2.6K kg
Source: USGS Pesticide National Synthesis Project (2019). USGS PNSP nationally; year 2019 is preliminary; 2018 unavailable; 2020+ not released. Update reliability medium-low. Full methodology →
Health Outcomes
Chronic disease prevalence
CDC PLACES model-based prevalence estimates for adults in Northumberland County. Full profile covers 15+ health outcomes plus mortality on the platform.
| Condition | Northumberland County | VA avg | US avg |
|---|---|---|---|
Current Asthma % of adults with current asthma | 10.6% ▼ -3.4% vs VA | 11.0% | 10.6% |
COPD % of adults with diagnosed COPD | 9.0% ▲ +11% vs VA | 8.1% | 8.6% |
Diabetes % of adults with diagnosed diabetes | 16.8% ▲ +18% vs VA | 14.3% | 13.7% |
Coronary Heart Disease % of adults with CHD | 9.9% ▲ +31% vs VA | 7.5% | 7.9% |
Depression % of adults ever diagnosed with depression | 20.1% ▼ -13% vs VA | 23.2% | 23.1% |
Frequent Mental Distress % of adults with 14+ poor mental health days/month | 13.8% ▼ -19% vs VA | 17.1% | 17.2% |
Vulnerable Medicare Population
Who needs the grid to stay alive
Medicare beneficiaries in Northumberland County who depend on electricity for dialysis, oxygen, or other powered medical equipment. From the HHS emPOWER program, which CMS publishes monthly so emergency managers know who to find first when the power goes out.
| Population | Count | Per 1,000 Medicare |
|---|---|---|
Total Medicare beneficiaries Denominator | 4,637 | — |
Electricity-dependent (any DME) Ventilators, oxygen concentrators, IV pumps, motorized wheelchairs | 144 | 31.1 ▼ -42% vs VA |
Dialysis-dependent ESRD beneficiaries needing in-center or home dialysis | 22 | 4.74 ▲ +11% vs VA |
Oxygen-dependent Home oxygen concentrators (outage-vulnerable) | 67 | 14.4 ▼ -21% vs VA |
Source: HHS emPOWER Map (ArcGIS county layer), May 2026. Counts of 1–10 are masked as “≤10” per HHS privacy rules; per-1,000 rates are derived and still respect the privacy floor. Full methodology →
Provider Supply
Specialty physician density per 100,000 residents
Active providers in Northumberland County from the CMS National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES). Compared to the U.S. average for each specialty. Adjacency adjustment is applied separately in the Provider Gap pillar score.
| Specialty | Northumberland County | US avg |
|---|---|---|
Primary Care Family medicine, internal medicine, general practice, pediatrics. | 132.4 per 100k +1.5% vs US | 130.4 |
Cardiology Cardiovascular disease, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology. | 8.3 per 100k ▼ -31% vs US | 12.1 |
Pulmonology Respiratory disease specialists — relevant to PM2.5 and wildfire smoke exposure. | 8.3 per 100k ▲ +37% vs US | 6.0 |
Psychiatry Mental health prescribers; complements behavioral health access. | 16.6 per 100k ▼ -11% vs US | 18.7 |
Oncology / Hematology Cancer specialists. | 8.3 per 100k ▲ +29% vs US | 6.4 |
Neurology Neurological disease specialists. | 8.3 per 100k ▲ +4.6% vs US | 7.9 |
Source: CMS National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES). Counts reflect providers with a primary practice address in Northumberland County; specialty is taken from the provider's primary NUCC taxonomy code.
Pro analytical view
What drives this county's scores
The flagged signals and service-line opportunities for Northumberland County, plus the methodology decomposition behind each score. Visible to Pro, Consultant Studio, and Enterprise tiers.
Where to focus
Pro feature
Top flagged signals + service lines are a Pro feature
See how each signal's components blend into its final score, and which signals + service lines this county should prioritize. Available on Professional, Consultant Studio, and Enterprise.
Score decomposition
Each named signal's component breakdown with weights. The bar length is the component's percentile rank; the parenthetical is its weight in the final blend.
Pro feature
Score decomposition is a Pro feature
See how each signal's components blend into its final score, and which signals + service lines this county should prioritize. Available on Professional, Consultant Studio, and Enterprise.
Tract drill-down
Census tracts inside Northumberland County
Pro feature
Tract-level drill-down is a Pro feature
See how each signal's components blend into its final score, and which signals + service lines this county should prioritize. Available on Professional, Consultant Studio, and Enterprise.
On the full platform
What else is available for Northumberland County
The page above is a subset. The free Community account unlocks the full single-county profile: every indicator, every data source, demographics, historical trends, and mortality data. Professional unlocks multi-county comparison, compound signal analysis, service line rankings, and consultant-ready PDF reports.
Full Environmental Profile
All 40+ environmental metrics including toxic releases, hazardous site proximity, PFAS detection, pesticide exposure, and climate stress indicators.
Service Line Opportunities
See how Northumberland County ranks for respiratory, oncology, cardiovascular, renal, endocrine, and behavioral health service line opportunity.
Multi-County Comparison
Compare Northumberland County side-by-side with neighboring counties across every dimension.
Trend Analysis
5-year sparklines for health outcomes, SDOH measures, and mortality rates so you can see where the county is heading, not just where it is today.
PDF Report Export
Generate a consultant-ready environmental health briefing for Northumberland County with methodology citations. Drops straight into a CHNA or grant application.
Nearby Counties
Counties bordering Northumberland County
Adjacent county profiles with their own scores and environmental health data. Source: Census Bureau County Adjacency File.
Westmoreland County
Virginia
50
Moderate
Lancaster County
Virginia
50
Moderate
Accomack County
Virginia
45
Moderate
Richmond County
Virginia
43
Moderate
Somerset County
Maryland
34
Below Avg
St. Mary's County
Maryland
17
Low
Data sources: EPA AQS, EPA EJSCREEN, EPA TRI, CDC PLACES, CDC WONDER, CMS NPPES, Census ACS, County Health Rankings, NOAA ACIS, NCI State Cancer Profiles. Every score on this page is derived from publicly available federal data, fused by the Banana Analytics pipeline.
Methodology: See the full scoring methodology (v1.2.0) for weights, sensitivity analysis, and validation against county-level mortality data.
Last refreshed: May 28, 2026